Two issues now dominate discussion of the Ukraine war: How to deter Russia from using a nuclear weapon, and whether there is an off-ramp for Putin that would bring the war to an end. I find that most analysts, and apparently the US government, are more hopeful than confident about how to respond to either problem. There is no lack of ideas about responding to a "limited" nuclear use by Russia, but when it comes to an off-ramp, the alternatives seem to be either victory by one side or a cease-fire and negotiations that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to undertake.