Starting now.
Commonalities where guests find
common ground through uncommon
conversations, politics,
religion, finances,
all the topics your grandmother told
you not to discuss with friends.
And now your host, Matthew Dowling,
and today's guests on commonalities.
Hey, thank you for joining us today
on commonalities. I'm your host,
Matt Dowling, alongside
today's guest, Noah Healy.
He's a professional algorithm
de developer and a recreational
mathematician. And if you're like me,
you're probably wondering what is
a recreational mathematician and,
and what do they do? Uh,
but he's quickly become an expert
on game theory and designing
marketplaces, uh,
building on breakthrough,
merging physics and mathematics.
In the 20th century,
he's developed and, uh,
has a patent pending on a
system to supersede commodity
markets. Now, a lot of
this may be over our, uh,
our viewers' heads, but
we'll make sure that we, uh,
we keep our conversations today to, uh,
to a point to where everyone
can understand. And if you
know you have questions,
you can visit my website
commonalities.online. We'll put,
uh, the answers to any of the
questions that you have up there.
Following today's interview,
Noah, thank you so much for, uh,
taking the time to join
me and my guest today. Uh,
why don't you go ahead and do a little
bit of a self introduction for, uh,
those that don't know you.
Well. Sure, Matthew, and thanks for
having me here. Uh, you hit the,
you hit the high points in, in
your introduction, um, but, uh,
answer sort of your, your
first question there.
Recreational mathematics is just
mathematics that you do for fun.
Um, it's, uh,
it's a pursuit that's
existed for millennia. Uh,
there's a great deal of
intellectual satisfaction to be
had in puzzle solving and so on.
And what this does is simply
transfers the puzzles from
trying to work out, uh,
a preset thing that another person
came up with to puzzles that are
evident in the very structure of reason
itself.
Sure. So, uh, you know, I, I don't
want to jump too far ahead, but, uh,
I was very interested in reading about
you that you have come up with kind
of an out of the box idea, uh,
a method that is patent pending that's
going to supersede commodity market.
So maybe we should start by
discussing what commodity markets are,
and then let's talk about
your method and, uh,
and how it supersedes the commodity,
commodity markets as a whole.
Okay. Uh, well, commodities are
products of uniform quality.
Uh, and so they're sort of
like McDonald's hamburgers, um,
crate loads of steel,
uh, truckloads of corn,
things like that have
been commodified. Um,
milk, you go into the grocery store, 2%
milk is 2% milk, pretty much even flour,
sugar, all the way, things
like that. Precisely. Yeah. Um,
and also things like lumber.
Um, yes, specific, you know,
when you're, when you're pulling
'em off, off the rack in the yard,
you want check for twist
and stuff like that.
But if you're buying in bulk,
you buy in board feet and you
just get what you get. Um,
so by creating these things that
are basically all the same as one
another,
we get the efficiencies that allow
our sort of modern economy to
function,
because otherwise you'd have
to be personally cognizant
of every single sugar farmer on
earth to figure out whether you like
this guy's sugar or that guy's sugar.
And you'd never be able to
make a factory that, you know,
cranks out Coca-Cola or buy a bag
to make cookies for, you know,
Christmas or whatever. Um,
so this commodification
simplifies the task
for both producers because they
no longer have to go through the
work of creating a specific brand
that they then have to market
against the backdrop of many other
people that are all trying to
produce what is more or less
exactly the same thing, um,
but also simplify things for consumers
because they don't need to investigate
the sort of past history of
where this particular hunk of
steel or this particular
bag of flour comes from,
because it's a bag of flour and it's part
of the system that's just guaranteeing
a, a quality level there. Uh,
and what that enables is these very
efficient marketplaces where people are
buying and selling copies of
more or less the same thing,
but from many different sources
and to many different destinations,
and that those sorts of markets
have been in use for centuries Now,
um, where,
where I step in is that computers
basically have been giving the
people operating these markets
and operating within these markets
as middlemen more of a boost
than they've been giving
those, those edge users, the,
the producers on the one hand,
and the consumers who are typically
companies that we would actually interact
with as consumers ourselves. Um,
and so what that has ha caused is
that these markets are becoming less
stable and more expensive. Um,
and we can see some of
the instability in supply
chain disruptions, uh,
in how inflation is moving
into food pricing and so on.
Um,
and what my system does is, uh,
creates a new role, uh,
within the marketplace
for information and,
and effectively fixes the cost
of information to the whole
marketplace, um,
by being able to adjust the
rate of return. So right now,
if you know stuff that
other people don't know,
you can trade in ways
that will give you, uh,
a good rate of return
in the marketplace. Uh,
and so your goal is to trade as much
as possible on a fairly low rate of
return to get as much money as you can.
What my system does is
raises the rate of return,
but fixes the total amount
of advantage that can
be gained.
And so what happens is the
incentive shifts from trying
to get as much deal flow and
noise into the market as possible
as trying to communicate what
you know as clearly, succinctly,
and quickly as possible so that
you get to secure the advantage
over other parties.
Sure. So, you know, we just, uh, ended
the holiday season, or we're still, uh,
kind of celebrating the holidays. And
in my area, there are a number of,
um, of women or individuals,
people, regardless of,
of gender that, uh,
that bake Christmas cookies and
sell those Christmas cookies to, uh,
other families or individuals
around the holiday time.
One of the things that we saw this year
was that those individuals that, uh,
kind of count on that extra money at the
holiday season in the middle of winter,
uh,
by selling those cookies were kind of
almost forced out of their own marketplace
because they use
commodities like sugar, um,
flour, nuts, or something that
have become extremely expensive,
um, in the baking that they
do. So how would your system,
um, solve any of the problems that
those individuals are dealing with,
uh, because commodity
prices have have risen, uh,
especially since the pandemic. Um,
would your system make things
less expensive or adjust,
uh, the pricing, uh, any, any more than
the commodities market system that,
that we have in place now?
So what my system would do
is reduce the overhead costs,
and those are multifarious.
So for example,
one of the most overhead
costed commodities in the
world for several decades
was aluminum, um,
where people had figured
out this way to effectively
hold up the entire aluminum
market behind a, a rule.
Um,
that meant that if you actually wanted
the aluminum that you'd bought delivered
to you, then you had to pay, I
believe it was an extra 21%. Um,
so if you're one of these women that's
getting Christmas cookies and wrapping
them up in aluminum
foil over the last, uh,
couple decades, um,
something like 25% of the money that
you spent on aluminum was going to
these middlemen, um, that were
just brokering the deal between,
uh, aluminum miners and,
and the manufacturers of the, the
sheet metal that you were buying. Um,
in other industries,
we see things that are not
really as extreme as that,
but overhead costs are still close to,
uh, or a large fraction
of production costs.
And so what my system would do by
reducing these overhead costs is it would
make production much more attractive,
and by then drawing more
people into the farming space,
supply would increase, and those,
those costs would come down.
Um, the other shift that it,
it should enable is
regularization of price. Um,
one of the things I myself, uh, make
fruitcake during the holiday season,
um, as many as 40 pounds some years, uh,
eggs went from about 9 cents
a piece in my local markets.
Um, that was,
that was in late November to 25
cents a piece by mid-December.
Um, and there's more than one
egg per pound of fruitcake.
So that's, uh, that's a
pretty significant shift, um,
in sort of the total cost
per pound of fruitcake, uh,
when you're talking about a nearly
three xing of just that price.
Sure. So, uh, you know, Noah, we
have to get to our first break.
We'll be back after, uh,
a brief message from, uh,
those who have sponsored us
today. And when we come back,
I want to talk a little bit,
uh, move from talking about, uh,
commodity markets to game theory,
but we'll do that after this brief break.
You are listening to commonalities
where guests find common ground through
uncommon conversations.
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online.
Hello, Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling
of home, that sense of belonging,
those fall Friday nights under the
lights, those winter nights in the gym,
watching our red Raiders,
those refreshing spring afternoons at
Bailey Park rooting on our Red Raider
softball and baseball teams.
I am grateful for those memories and
hope our community's children and
grandchildren can enjoy those
memories too. But to do that,
we have to plan for the future.
During my first term in office,
the city has got Bailey Park back
to a place where we can be proud of.
Begun our city's first
comprehensive plan in over 20 years.
Started work on the city
section of the Sheep Skin Trail,
worked on eliminating blighted
properties and are rebuilding the city's
neighborhoods. We've updated the faulty
equipment in the parking garages,
and we're bringing a more
competitive, reliable, faster,
and less expensive internet service to
our city residents. We have done a lot,
but there's still more to do. So, I Bill
Gerkey. I'm running for a second term.
We're Uniontown proud,
we're Uniontown strong,
and together we can continue to rebuild
Uniontown for the next generation.
Paid.
For by Mayor Bill.
Gerkey.
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Thanks for staying with us
here on commonalities. I'm
your host, Matt Dowling,
alongside Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer
and recreational mathematician.
That means he does what
many of us put off, uh,
mathematics just for fun, and, uh,
and he's an expert in his field. Before
we went to the break, we mentioned,
uh, uh, something called game theory,
and I wanna talk a little bit
about game theory and, uh,
allow Noah to explain to us
how he practices mathematics in
relation to game theory.
Uh, well, sure. Game theory is
the mathematics of strategy,
and in particular,
how a system evolves and how decision
making evolves when there's more
than one decision maker, uh,
which of course is normally
how things work out.
Usually there's more than one person
that's that that has interests,
and so merely trying to do
what you want to do isn't,
isn't gonna work out that well. Um, in,
in sort of board games, uh,
like chess or tic-tac toe,
one of the first lessons
to teach is that, um,
wishful strategies aren't
really that valuable. Um,
if you make a move hoping
that your opponent won't see
what you're trying to do,
so that you can win, um, in
the very beginning of a game,
that might work out for you. But as,
as you and your opponents
become more sophisticated,
they're likely to see
what you're trying to do.
And so making moves that depend
on your opponent's failures become
less desirable as moves. Um,
where game theory really shines is that,
uh,
virtually everything can be
thought about in terms of
an interested decision maker.
And so other kinds of problems like
how to carry out computations,
how to carry out communications,
how to carry out calculations, uh,
how to do physics can be
done considering nature
as a player in the game, or, uh,
considering the network as a player in
the game that has interest that it's
attempting to, to carry out.
And then you are doing other things
to try to get what you want out
of this system that's trying to get
what it wants. Um, and for markets,
this is particularly important because
essentially in the marketplace,
there are three key
factors that each person has
access to. There's currency money,
um, there's the good or service that's
being provided within the marketplace,
but then there's information,
information about what pricing levels are
of value to yourself and others.
And right now,
we only address that third part
of the marketplace. Emergently.
Um, existing markets basically require
many, many people to buy and sell.
So many in fact,
that some people are merely buying
and selling and don't actually
make or use the thing
that they're trading. Um,
but with game theory,
we can come up with an interest
for those informed parties,
which include the, the
makers, include the users,
but also include independent
experts that that research and study
and, and keep up with, you know,
the news and trends and so on.
Um, and allow basically the entire
interested community in
the market to merge their
information together into a supermind, uh,
that can then be used and
accessed by every individual
within the market. So it's not just
you out there making some cookies,
it's a sort of
virtual corporation of
everyone and what they want
trying to find the best level
for society to operate at.
So what I'm kind of picking up
from our conversation is the,
the crux of what we're getting at is
that individuals that are buying and
selling and not producing it all, um,
those are the people that are
trading in the commodities market.
Those are the middle men,
those are the people that, um,
are driving costs up. So
correct me if I'm wrong,
in the system that you're proposing,
we would kind of be eliminating
those middle men, uh,
or making them less
relevant. Is that correct?
It's not exactly that. So they
have existed for centuries.
What's causing them to drive
costs up today is that technology
has enabled them to do
their jobs better without
simultaneously increasing the
competitive forces that would
keep them sort of in their lane.
So what I'm doing is
creating a new system where
they basically have their
own dedicated road, um,
and they can go out there
and just play the game among
themselves.
And so rather than having a situation
where you've got sort of Olympic athletes
competing with children and winning
by larger and larger margins, um,
the Olympic athletes have to
go compete with each other.
And while it's still very relevant,
what they're doing is important
to the marketplace as a whole,
it's no longer the case that they
can sort of bully people who are not
at their level. Um,
instead they have to provide
the actual service that they're,
they're supposed to provide
within the marketplace,
which is this information
and security, uh,
which is what's valuable about the market.
So, you know, if, if I am
the common everyday American,
the Pennsylvanian that, uh, that goes
to work for eight hours a day and,
and comes home and is raising children,
why would a topic like this interest me?
Or why should it be important
to me? You know, what kind of,
what is the relevance in daily life
to, uh, to considering things this way?
So market costs are a,
a drag on economic output
of the country. And,
um, for the last number that
I've got from the US government,
commodity market overheads, uh, are just,
we're just shy of 800 billion a year,
and that was eight years ago. Um,
if you think about the actual
growth rate of the economy,
um, the, the sort of smeared out average
over the last 30 years, you know,
whether we're in a recession,
whether or not we're in a recession,
that's sort of irrelevant
for decades. Actually,
for the last 50 years, we've been
growing at around 2% a year. Um,
which means that the growth rate
of the entire economy is in the
four to 500 billion a year range.
If that cost of 800 billion,
which is almost certainly significantly
higher now with inflation and even more
technology, uh, were to
be reduced by even 50%,
that would go directly onto the
lifestyles of individual,
uh, uh, you know,
regular nine to five Americans. So a,
you could see 25 to 40% increases
in farm, uh, uh, profits,
for example. Um, so a,
a middle class family could become an
upper class family just overnight from
things like this. And then that ripples
through the rest of the community as,
as suddenly that becomes a
better employment option,
or the increased wealth
leads to other types of,
of investments that then
feed back into the system. So
the,
the success and adoption
of this technology could
double the rate at which the
economy grows in a fashion
which directly impacts working
in middle class families.
And that would,
that would shift the trajectory
of wealth creation in this
country and really around the
world in a fundamental way. For,
you know, the last market
system lasted for 800 years. Uh,
so for centuries to come, the,
the potential upsides here are difficult
to wrap your, your head around. Um,
I can't really even fully conceive
of how much advantage is to
be gained from squeezing
hundreds of billions of dollars
in cost out of the system every year,
and being able to put that
into people's pockets and,
and into their lifestyles.
So we have to get one more break in
when we come back from the break. I,
I wanna discuss, um,
the implementation process
or what conversations
need to take place, um,
to take advantage of,
of some of the ways that you're
talking about squeezing, uh,
extra money out of the system.
But we'll do that when we come
back here on commonalities.
You are listening to commonalities
where guests find common ground through
uncommon conversations.
We'll be back after this brief
break to recognize our sponsors.
Hello, Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling
of home, that sense of belonging,
those fall Friday nights under the
lights, those winter nights in the gym,
watching our red Raiders, those refreshing
spring afternoons at Bailey Park,
rooting on our Red Raider
softball and baseball teams.
I am grateful for those memories and
hope our community's children and
grandchildren can enjoy those
memories too. But to do that,
we have to plan for the future.
During my first term in office,
the city has got Bailey Park back
to a place where we can be proud of.
Begun our city's first
comprehensive plan in over 20 years.
Started work on the city's
section of the Sheep Skin Trail,
worked on eliminating blighted
properties and are rebuilding the city's
neighborhoods. We've updated the faulty
equipment in the parking garages,
and we're bringing a more
competitive, reliable, faster,
and less expensive internet
service to our city residents.
We have done a lot, but there's
still more to do. So, I Bill Gerkey,
I'm running for a second term. We're
Uniontown proud, we're Uniontown strong,
and together we can continue to rebuild
Uniontown for the next generation.
Paid.
For by Mayor Ky.
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for airtime at donate dot commonalities
online.
A girl and a guy named Slip and
Sly, we're sitting in the kitchen.
Megan Rhubarb Pie was a hot
commodity, a hot commodity.
The rhubarb pie was a.
Hot commodity. Thanks for staying
with us. My guest today is Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer
and a recreational mathematician.
We're talking finances today,
and we're talking about
the commodities market,
as well as a new method that
NOAA is proposing that would
actually squeeze some
additional revenue, uh,
out of the system and would give, uh,
more money to the individuals who
are producing goods to put back
into the market. So I wanna talk
Noah, about practical application.
I served for six years in the
Pennsylvania State House and, uh,
voted annually on a budget that
was 38 plus billion dollars,
um,
not including some of the federal money
that comes into the Commonwealth to be
spent, but we didn't even, uh,
have conversations like this
where we're talking about ways to
improve the market system
As we were discussing, um,
the state's annual budget, of course,
we talked about taxation and making
things friendlier for the business
community, uh, so that businesses would
want to, to come here to Pennsylvania.
But how, uh,
likely is the implementation
of your proposal, uh,
to happen and what conversations need to
happen at the state or federal levels,
uh, for a shift like this to
really come into fruition?
Uh, well, so some of the conversations
are happening around the patent office.
Um, the patent system has,
is really in a state of,
of chaos at the moment, um,
due to some litigation
outstanding and also decades
of difficulty in coping with
the very divergent needs of
kind of big tech and big pharma, uh,
that have more or less opposite it
strategies from one another and are
both of great significance
to, to the economy. Um,
so I,
I might be the first person in American
history to have had my patent accepted
and then had that acceptance
withdrawn by internal departments
within the patent office, um, twice. Um,
happening once is rare. Um,
reinstating after one is rarer still. Um,
but, uh,
but having it withdrawn the second time
is something that no one I've ever spoke
to has ever heard of. Um, that process
is now going to a court for appeal.
Uh, we'll see where that goes. Um,
I am working with a handful of people
around the world who are attempting to
stand up marketplaces that
incorporate this technology. Um,
one of the explicit design concepts, uh,
was that governments would in
fact be able to implement markets
like this for the benefit
of their, their, uh,
economies if they wanted to. Uh,
the American governments at the state
and federal level are extremely reluctant
to do things like that.
So I have not had conversations
like that with any,
uh, uh, federal or state level person. Um,
conversations like this are important
because one of the other, uh,
barriers is that I am the first
person since the Renaissance to
propose a system which is
algorithmically superior to the market
system that is in place.
So most people are not even
aware that it's possible for
markets to have the kinds of flaws
I'm talking about or for improvements
like the kinds of improvements
I'm talking about to be made.
So education at state or
federal levels on that front
is something that I am, I am working
towards improving and trying to get,
uh, awareness out for. Um, but yeah,
Pennsylvania,
like most states in the
United States has a robust
agriculture sector, uh, and an
extensive extractive sector, uh,
with iron coal and other commodity product
being significant parts of
the state's value chain.
Um, and so yeah,
it'd be perfectly possible for a state
like Philadelphia or Pennsylvania,
sorry, to set up, uh, uh,
a pilot commodity marketplace, um,
with this technology, um, and, and offer,
its, its state producers, uh,
what it amounts to a
collective bargaining position
that would allow these small,
independent producers to
stand on the same level as
much larger, uh, you know, conglomerate,
agribusiness type things could,
could normally operate on. Um,
that's generally more interesting to, uh,
developing countries.
And so, uh, the, that's,
that's more of the focus right now of
the people that are interested in trying
to pick the technology up. But I'm,
I'm open to every train leaving the
station because everything's headed to the
same destination. Uh,
and the markets we have
have been failing for
really almost my entire
lifetime. Um, and the,
the problems are getting
worse and more obvious,
and we'll keep doing so
because they aren't the result
of, of human malfeasance. Um,
they're the result of
technological capability,
and we are not going to, you know,
collectively throw our cell phones away.
So we're gonna keep
having that capacity, uh,
and that's gonna keep
degrading the markets we have.
Well, you know, first, don't, uh,
don't feel bad about trying to make
Philadelphia its own state here within the
Commonwealth as we address problems.
Uh, one of the things that we, we,
we see a lot is that, uh,
Philadelphia is unlike the rest of
the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in
many ways, and has some unique
challenges and also unique opportunities.
Um, but that being said, you know,
the method that you're proposing and what
you're talking about makes production
more profitable and increases
the economic potential for
everyone involved. So, you
know, where is the downside?
Who are the people that would
fight a proposal like this? Um,
who would it inconvenience? Who
would not wanna see this happen?
Uh, well, you know,
everybody's conservative about
the thing that they know best. Uh,
so people who are highly successful
within the existing system are highly
resistant to the notion
that it is a problem. Um,
this is a,
a sort of psychological block that
I deal with when I talk to traders.
They can't see that their
incomes actually come from
other people's costs. They just think, oh,
I'm trading into this abstract market
of traders. I'm good at my job,
and so I make money.
It's good to make money.
It's good for people to be good at
my job, therefore everything's fine.
Um, but service provision
is a tricky business because
part of the value of a
service is its cost. Um,
if, if you break your arm and go
to the doctor and get it reset,
that's, that's great. You know, you're
gonna keep having the use of your arm,
but if you get that for a hundred dollars,
it's better than if you get
it for a million dollars, um,
because it's the same service either way,
and it's cheaper at a hundred dollars.
And so if a service can be
provided for less actual money,
it's more valuable. But people
that are providing that service,
they can't always get there. Um,
the other big shift this does is by
essentially batching up all
production, all consumption,
and all information into
these marketplaces where
people are competing with one another. Um,
that shifts the hedging risk
structure because now the
batches are,
are much more intrinsically edged
because they're much more intrinsically
diversified than existing
markets can offer. Um,
and there are very
successful companies that
effectively do nothing but
ensure these hedging risks.
And so a marketplace that structurally
eliminates that structurally eliminates
the need for those companies.
So they would have a direct interest
in resisting this kind of technology.
So we're getting back down to about the
last two minutes of our program today,
and I want to let you, uh, interject
any closing thoughts you have.
But before you do that,
if someone wanted to learn more
about anything we've discussed today,
uh, what are some resources? I,
I know with the internet there are
a lot of resources out there, um,
on the worldwide web.
Where could someone find more
information about commodity markets
and, uh, about the system that, uh,
that you currently have
a patent pending for?
Uh, well, I have a
[email protected],
C O O R D I S C, uh, for
coordinated discovery.
You can learn more about
my system there. Uh,
you can reach out to me personally,
uh, either through LinkedIn,
I'm Noah Healy there, or Noah
p healy yahoo.com is my email.
I'm happy to answer questions, um, for
learning more about commodity markets.
Wikipedia's article is actually fine,
and you can start working your
way through, you know, the,
the bibliography there for
other things, or in fact, uh,
if you're fine with eighties
rated r comedies, trading Places,
um,
has several fantastic scenes
where they explain as if to
a child how commodity
markets work and, um,
the, the World Trade Center, or this
was after the World Trade Center,
actually the after nine 11, the,
the reconstructed building, um,
actually did a, uh,
like documentary short with Dan Akroyd,
I think about 10 years ago, um,
where they, they were talking about
how things are done these days,
and the fact that trading places
it couldn't happen in the same
way because the pits are gone.
It's all computers now,
but the actual mechanisms of
trade haven't changed at all.
We're just using computers
to do the trades at a a
million times greater speed, uh,
than than we used to do when
we were shouting at each other.
That is actually a, a, a great movie.
I just watched Trading Places, uh,
this past year, uh, founded on a streaming
service, so I know it's out there.
Um, and it does really give
some good insight into,
into the Commod commodities
market. Hey, uh,
my guest today has been Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer
and recreational mathematician.
Noah, we have about 30 seconds
left. Final thoughts for the day?
Um, I,
I I outta words, uh, happy
New Year, everybody. Uh,
and, um, you know, let's,
let's hope we can start fixing up these
systems that computers are breaking
down, uh, in the new Year.
Yeah. And that's gonna become
even more important I think,
as we move forward and as technology
continues to play an even greater
role in our daily lives. Noah, thank
you so much for being with me today.
It has been, uh, a.
Pleasure. This has been commonalities,
a show where guests find common
ground through uncommon conversations.
Copyright 2022, coordinated 360,
all public rebroadcast should be done
with prior written approval from Matthew
Dowling. All requests should be sent
to
[email protected]
Thank you for listening to commonalities.
Hello Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling
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I am grateful for those memories and
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During my first term in office,
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Begun our city's first
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We have done a lot, but there's
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I'm running for a second term. We're
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and together we can continue to rebuild
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